CLIMATE SCORECARD: POST 103  WEATHER PATTERNS AND CLIMATE CHANGE

FRANCE

Over the past 20 years, France has warmed, with more frequent heatwaves, droughts, and extreme rainfall; nine of the ten warmest years on record occurred after 2010, with 2022 the warmest year. This trend is expected to continue. France’s climate projections indicate approximately +2.7°C of warming by 2050 and around +4°C by 2100 compared with the beginning of the 20th century. Heatwaves are expected to become much more frequent, while summers are likely to become drier. At the same time, intense rainfall events are expected to strengthen, increasing flood risk. France is therefore likely to experience hotter summers, more drought and water stress, but also more intense episodes of heavy rainfall.

Heatwaves have already become more frequent and intense. Summer 2022 combined exceptional heat with severe drought, affecting around three-quarters of the country. Drought is particularly important because it affects agriculture, forests, water supplies and energy production. Drought-related damage has also become increasingly costly, with insured losses reaching approximately €13.8 billion by the end of 2024. Flooding presents a contrasting risk. Although climate change is expected to reduce summer rainfall, warmer air can hold more moisture and contribute to more intense rainfall events. In 2024, France experienced one of its warmest years on record while also receiving approximately 15% more precipitation than the 1991–2020 average.

France has substantially reduced its territorial greenhouse-gas emissions. Emissions fell from approximately 513 MtCO₂e in 2010 to 369 MtCO₂e in 2024. Preliminary estimates indicate a further reduction to around 364 MtCO₂e in 2025. However, the reduction needs to accelerate. France’s current trajectory requires about a 5% annual emissions reduction through 2030, compared with an estimated 1.5% reduction in 2025. 

Climate change is also affecting forests and agriculture. In 2022, more than 70,000 hectares of forests and vegetation burned in metropolitan France and Corsica. Hotter and drier conditions increase fire risk, although most forest fires are still linked to human activity. Agriculture is increasingly exposed to both drought and excessive rainfall. The 2022 drought caused major crop losses, while exceptionally wet conditions in 2024 led to France’s smallest cereal harvest in about 40 years, with wheat production down around 30%.

Energy consumption is also changing. Warmer winters reduce heating demand, while hotter summers increase cooling demand. France’s final energy consumption fell by about 8.4% between 2012 and 2024, while fossil-fuel consumption fell by about 17%.

France is addressing climate change through both mitigation and adaptation:

• SNBC 3: aims for a 50% reduction in territorial greenhouse-gas emissions by 2030 compared with 1990 and carbon neutrality by 2050.
• PNACC-3: adopted in 2025, contains 52 measures and more than 200 actions to prepare France for heat, drought, floods, fires, coastal erosion and biodiversity loss.
• Energy transition: expansion of renewable energy, low-carbon electricity and energy efficiency while reducing fossil-fuel use.
• Agricultural and water adaptation: improved water management, climate forecasting and adaptation of farming practices.
• Fire prevention: increased monitoring, public awareness and preparedness as fire risks expand geographically.

This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard France Country Manager, Camille Huret.

Ressources : 

• Météo-France – Climate change in France and 2024 climate assessment

• French Ministry for Ecological Transition – Third National Climate Adaptation Plan (PNACC-3)

• French Ministry for Ecological Transition – French greenhouse-gas emissions / CITEPA data

• Météo-France – 2024 rainfall and extreme weather assessment

• French Ministry for Ecological Transition – National climate adaptation policy