China: 2026 Emissions Forecast

As China enters the first year of its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter stands at a historic inflection point. Following a period of “plateaued” emissions through late 2025, the 2026 outlook suggests that China is no longer just slowing its growth—it is beginning a structural descent.

While the central government maintains a cautious official stance, industrial data and energy deployment rates indicate that the “Carbon Peak” may have already occurred in the rearview mirror of 2025.

2026 Emissions Forecast: A Marginal Decline

Based on current energy deployment and industrial trends, total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China are projected to be 0.5% to 1.2% lower in 2026 than in 2025. This follows a reported 0.3% decline in 2025, signaling that China may have reached its absolute emissions peak years ahead of its official 2030 target.

Sectoral Breakdown

Sector	Estimated Change	Key Drivers
Energy & Power	-1.5%	Solar capacity is projected to overtake coal for the first time in 2026. Non-fossil sources are expected to reach 63% of total installed capacity by year-end.
Transportation	-4.0%	NEV (New Energy Vehicle) penetration has crossed the 50% mark for new sales. Oil demand in the transport sector fell by 5% in late 2025, a trend expected to accelerate.
Heavy Industry	-2.0%	The inclusion of steel, cement, and aluminum in the National Carbon Market (ETS) in 2025, combined with a continued real estate contraction, is depressing demand for high-emission materials.
Agriculture	Stable	Gains in methane capture and fertilizer efficiency are currently offset by rising livestock production and food security intensification.
Chemicals	+4.0%	This remains the primary growth sector, driven by coal-to-chemical expansion and rising demand for oil-based feedstocks (plastics).

Strategic Drivers: The “Dual Control” Era

The primary reason for this optimistic forecast is the transition from “Energy Intensity” targets to a “Dual Control of Carbon” system. In 2026, for the first time, provincial governments and major industries face binding caps on total carbon emissions rather than just energy efficiency ratios.

Furthermore, the National Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is executing a “market reset” in early 2026. By tightening benchmarks and expanding to cover 60% of national emissions, regulators are driving higher carbon prices, incentivizing rapid decarbonization ahead of international border adjustments like the EU’s CBAM.

Alignment with Paris Agreement Objectives

China’s current trajectory significantly bolsters its ability to meet the Paris Agreement objectives, though it still falls short of a 1.5°C-aligned pathway.

2030 Peaking Goal: China is virtually certain to achieve its peak before 2030. The 2026 forecast suggests the “plateau” phase has transitioned into a gradual decline.
2035 NDC Targets: China’s updated pledge to include all greenhouse gases (including methane) in its 2035 targets is supported by the 2026 expansion of monitoring and reporting.
2060 Carbon Neutrality: The massive build-out of renewable capacity—reaching nearly 3,600 GW of solar and wind by 2035—provides the structural foundation for the 2060 “Net Zero” goal.

“2026 marks the first year where clean energy growth is not just a supplement, but the primary driver of China’s economic expansion,” says Lauri Myllyvirta, Lead Analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard China Country Manager, Vincent Mao.