Mexico’s current policy direction appears strong enough to slow emissions growth, but not yet strong enough to guarantee an economy-wide drop by 2026, especially given rising energy demand, growing transport activity, and structural dependence on fossil fuels.
The Paris Climate Agreement sets a global expectation that countries must reach carbon neutrality by 2050 or cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030 or 2035. Very few countries are on track. Mexico, however, is making a strong commitment to address the climate crisis through its recently updated federal plan, the Update of Mexico’s Nationally Determined Contribution 3.0, also known as la Actualización de la Contribución Determinada a Nivel Nacional 3.0 de México.
But even with ambitious plans, is it enough? Will emissions in Mexico go up or down by the end of 2026? When confronted with such questions, we must rely on objective data rather than political optimism.
Based on the most recent data presented by the Mexican government, its National Inventory Report estimates that in 2022, Mexico had a total CO2e emissions of 757,285.76 kilo tons of CO2e. This does not include land use and forestry, where emissions may be lower due to soils and forests acting as carbon sinks. Taking a deeper look into the total emissions, the report states that 63.4% of these emissions are based on energy-related consumption,18.4% is related to agriculture, and 9.6% is related to industry processes and products, which is where emissions are not tied to burning fossil fuels.
Looking ahead to the end of 2026, I estimate that Mexico will see a minor overall increase in total emissions, in the range of approximately 0.3 percent to 3 percent, rather than a clear decline. My reason is that Mexico’s current policy direction appears strong enough to slow emissions growth, but not yet strong enough to guarantee an economy-wide drop by 2026, especially given rising energy demand, growing transport activity, and structural dependence on fossil fuels.
In the energy section, the national mitigation plan emphasizes expanding renewable energy on the grid and upgrading the transmission network. The plan states that it aims to install 70% of new capacity between 2025 and 2030, mainly solar PV and wind. Additionally, it proposes major project portfolios totaling around $8 million USD, including expansion of the transmission network with new lines and substation work. This focus on renewables is essential for gradually reducing dependence on fossil fuels while expanding and improving an electrical network that still has gaps in reliability and access across regions. However, infrastructure deployment takes time, and even rapid renewable growth can be offset in the short term by rising electricity demand from households and industry.
For the agriculture sector, the plan highlights two major pathways to reduce emissions: improved manure management through biodigesters and better fertilizer and soil management practices. Biodigesters can reduce methane emissions by capturing gases from manure breakdown and using them rather than releasing them into the atmosphere. Of the total emissions produced by agriculture, around 72% comes from livestock-related sources such as fermentation and manure management. Mexico also relies on land-based strategies through Sembrando Vida, which is designed to support the livelihood of 400,000 people while improving soil and restoring forest cover. These are important interventions, but their climate impact depends on implementation quality and the ability to scale adoption beyond localities.
In industrial processes and product use, the plan includes capacity building and a transition to lower-carbon operations. This is important because it supports workforce readiness and strengthens compliance across multiple sectors. At the same time, Mexico faces a growing challenge from hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) used in refrigeration and air conditioning. These gases are highly potent greenhouse gases, and their use is increasing as cooling demand grows throughout the Republic. The plan’s approach of improved tracking, stronger regulation, leak prevention, repair programs, and a shift to lower-global-warming-potential refrigerants could reduce future emissions growth. Still, it may not be enough to reverse it by 2026 fully.
Overall, Mexico’s updated plan is meaningful and signals progress. However, it is still unlikely to place the country on a pathway to meet the Paris Agreement’s expectation of cutting emissions by about 50% by 2030 or 2035, or to reach carbon neutrality by 2050, without larger structural changes. Mexico will likely need faster renewable deployment, stronger transport decarbonization, and tougher methane and industrial controls to turn minor reductions into sustained national declines.
This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Mexico Country, Manager Miguel Martinez Jr.
Work Cited/References
- https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2025-11/NDC%203.0%20México_spanish.pdf
- https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/INEGYCEI_170625_CGMCC.pdf
- https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/report_2025?utm_source=chatgpt.com