Stabilization Without Transformation. Without an accelerated coal phase-out, faster renewable deployment, and durable land-use enforcement, emissions reductions will remain fragile and insufficient to place the country on a Paris-aligned pathway.
Indonesia’s greenhouse gas emissions trajectory heading into 2026 reflects a familiar pattern. Incremental progress in land use governance is being offset by continued dependence on fossil fuels. As one of the world’s largest emitters, Indonesia’s near-term emissions outlook will play a critical role in determining whether the country can realistically align with the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goals.
National Emissions Baseline
According to Climate Analytics, Indonesia’s current emissions stand at approximately 1.2 GtCO2e per year, excluding land use change and forestry LULUCF. When LULUCF is included, total emissions increase substantially, reflecting Indonesia’s long-standing exposure to deforestation- and peatland-related emissions. Historically, around 40 percent of Indonesia’s CO2 emissions have come from land use change, making this sector decisive for short-term emissions outcomes.
Land Use and Forestry: The Only Near-Term Lever
Indonesia has lost an estimated 32 million hectares of tree cover since 2001, placing it among the world’s largest contributors to deforestation-related emissions. In 2024 alone, tree cover loss generated approximately 194 MtCO2 emissions, based on Global Forest Watch data.
Recent reductions in deforestation rates, supported by forest moratoria and peatland restoration policies, suggest that LULUCF emissions could remain lower than historical peaks through 2026. However, these gains remain fragile and highly sensitive to climate variability, enforcement capacity, and commodity market pressures.
Energy Sector: Coal Continues to Drive Emissions
Indonesia’s energy-sector emissions continue to rise, driven by coal-heavy electricity generation. Coal still accounts for nearly 60 percent of Indonesia’s power mix, despite stated commitments to increase renewable energy deployment.
Indonesia’s national energy plan targets a 23 percent renewable energy share, but progress has been slower than planned, with continued investments in fossil fuel infrastructure. As a result, the energy sector is expected to remain a net source of emissions growth through 2026.
Transport and Industry: Limited Momentum
Emissions from transport and industry are expected to remain stable or increase modestly. While Indonesia has announced electric vehicle incentives and urban transport investments, independent assessments show that electrification and modal shifts are not yet occurring at a scale sufficient to deliver measurable emissions reductions in the near term.
Forecast: Emissions at the End of 2026
Based on current policies and Climate Analytics‘ scenario assessments, Indonesia’s emissions excluding LULUCF are projected to reach approximately 1.2-1.25 GtCO2e by the end of 2026. This reflects stabilization rather than decline, placing Indonesia well off a 1.5°C aligned pathway.
Including LULUCF, total emissions outcomes will depend largely on whether recent gains in forest protection are maintained. Energy-sector growth, however, is expected to continue to offset land-use improvements.
Paris Agreement Alignment
Indonesia’s Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution commits to a 31.9 percent unconditional emissions reduction by 2030, rising to 43.2 percent with international support. These targets fall short of the emissions cuts required to align with the Paris Agreement’s ambition of limiting warming to 1.5°C. Current trajectories also place Indonesia off track to reach net zero emissions by 2050, with timelines extending to 2060 under existing policies.
Indonesia’s emissions outlook for 2026 signals stability without structural change. Without an accelerated coal phase-out, faster renewable deployment, and durable land-use enforcement, emissions reductions will remain fragile and insufficient to place the country on a Paris-aligned pathway.
This post is written by Climate Scorecard Indonesia Country Manager, Netra Naik.