By the end of 2026, Brazil will show an approximate 8% reduction in total GHG emissions compared to the average level of the post-2020 years.
The Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals Estimation System (SEEG) from the Climate Observatory shows that Brazil’s emissions profile has historically been dominated by land-use change and deforestation, followed by the energy and agricultural sectors. The recent resumption of deforestation control policies, coupled with a more active climate agenda, supports the expectation of a moderate reduction in emissions until 2026, provided there are no significant setbacks – especially with the opening of new oil exploration fronts in the Amazon, which could compromise this trajectory.
- Estimated Change in Total Emissions by 2026
Based on recent trends and SEEG data, it is projected that, by the end of 2026, Brazil will show an approximate 8% reduction in total GHG emissions compared to the average level of the post-2020 years.
In qualitative terms, the forecast is:
Total Brazil: approximately -8% by 2026
Land use and forests: -15% to -20%
Energy (total): 0% to -3%
Within energy, transport: +1% to +4%
Agriculture: 0% to +3%
Industrial processes (PIUP): 0% to +2%
Waste: +2% to +5%
Most of the expected reduction comes from the decrease in deforestation, while other sectors tend towards stability or small variations. This projection assumes that Brazil will not substantially expand its fossil fuel frontier, especially with new oil projects in the Amazon region.
- Breakdown by main sectors
Land use and forests
The combination of increased environmental oversight, satellite monitoring, the resumption of plans to combat deforestation, and market pressure for deforestation-free supply chains is expected to reduce emissions from this sector by 15% to 20% by 2026. This result is crucial for the country’s climate trajectory.
Energy and transport
The Brazilian electricity matrix remains predominantly renewable, with the expansion of wind and solar sources, which helps to contain emissions. However, the use of fossil fuels in transport and industry limits deeper reductions.
The energy sector as a whole is expected to remain stable or slightly decline (0% to -3%).
Transport is expected to see a slight increase (1% to 4%) due to increased demand for mobility and freight.
In this context, it is strategically crucial not to proceed with oil exploration in the Amazon. Opening new oil frontiers, in addition to generating a direct risk of socio-environmental impacts on a sensitive biome, creates additional future emissions – both in the extraction phase and in the burning of this fuel – and signals a lock-in on fossil assets incompatible with the 1.5–2°C trajectory. Keeping the Amazon free from oil exploration is consistent with Brazil’s role as a forest country with a high capacity to lead the global energy transition.
Agriculture
Responsible for large emissions of methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O), it tends towards stability with a slight increase (0% to +3%). The expansion of production for export and the domestic market can be partially offset by sustainable intensification, pasture recovery, and the adoption of low-carbon agricultural practices. However, this remains insufficient to achieve a significant decrease by 2026.
Industrial processes and waste
PIUP: small variation (0% to +2%), depending on the industrial activity.
Waste: moderate increase (+2% to +5%), linked to urban growth and the still gradual expansion of sanitation and waste management.
- Compatibility with the Paris Agreement
The Paris Agreement aims for a global reduction of approximately 50% in emissions by 2030/2035 and for carbon neutrality by 2050.
The estimated reduction of -8% by 2026 for Brazil:
Represents a step in the right direction, but still insufficient to guarantee a trajectory compatible with the 50% reduction by 2030.
However, it shows that the country can approach this trajectory if it:
- consolidates the sharp decline in deforestation;
- accelerates the decarbonization of energy and transport;
- advances in low-emission agriculture;
- avoids the expansion of the fossil fuel frontier, especially oil exploration in the Amazon;
- increases forest restoration and carbon sinks.
To achieve climate neutrality by 2050, Brazil needs to:
- zero deforestation as soon as possible,
- drastically reduce the use of fossil fuels, instead of opening new areas for exploration,
- cut methane and N₂O emissions in agriculture,
- expand restoration projects, forest conservation, and potential technological solutions for carbon removal.
- Conclusion
Based on SEEG data, Brazil could reduce its total emissions by about 8% by 2026, mainly due to a decline in deforestation. However, this positive trajectory depends on maintaining and expanding environmental policies and not opening new oil exploration fronts in the Amazon, which contradict the logic of a transition.
This post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Brazil Country Manager, Carlos Alexandre de Oliveira.