Given the current administration’s agenda to focus heavily on fossil fuel production, it is evident that our national output would increase substantially compared to recent years.
By the end of 2026, I expect the United States’ total emissions to increase markedly. Based on the current administration’s agenda to focus heavily on fossil fuel production, it is evident that our national output would only increase, and substantially at that, compared to recent years.
In 2025, the Trump administration withdrew from the Paris Agreement as soon as Trump took office. The administration also made drastic cuts to funding for renewable energy programs, including hydroelectric, solar, and wind power, while attempting to bolster coal-fired energy production. As a result, the United States sadly increased its greenhouse gas emissions by 2.4% in 2025 compared to 2024. If this trend continues, the effect on the United States’ overall GHG emissions will markedly increase, which is devastating.
As GHG emissions increased in the US, it is important to examine which sectors contributed most to these emissions. Those topping the list include transportation, industry, and buildings. In 2025, GHG emissions from transportation accounted for around 28% of total US emissions, making it the largest contributor among all sectors. I predict the energy use in this sector will increase by somewhere between 0.5% and 3%, based on the Trump administration’s incentivization of gasoline-powered vehicles after eliminating EV programs. Another sector is industry, where, despite the Trump administration playing a heavy role in supporting fossil fuels, previous administrations did so without much press attention. I predict that the industry will increase anywhere from 4-8%, because it is obvious that this is where the Trump administration is focusing its energy goals. Finally, for the buildings sector, which saw GHG emissions for heating and cooling buildings increase by 6.8% in 2025 alone, I predict emissions will increase by 8-16% due to the construction of data centers and the administration’s focus on fossil-fuel-generated cooling systems.
Sadly, the United States is no longer a world leader in the energy market or in the fight against climate change, regarding the emissions goals set by the Paris Agreement. It is the ignorance of our current President and this administration that is leading to difficult and dangerous exposure to toxic fuels, environmental disasters, and energy threats faced by the exponentially increasing data center development in our nation.
As someone who is keen to notice trends and is connected in the environmental industry, the best way to continue to fight for what is needed for our environment is to continue to contribute in small ways–even if it is just telling someone about the current events in positive climate action, sharing media, and continue to draw awareness about these issues, one at a time. Maybe it is the small actions that can be the most meaningful and powerful in terms of existence under climate threats. I know they are for me.
This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard US Country Manager, Abby Carlson.