Forecast: By the end of 2026, UK territorial emissions are expected to be approximately 3–4% lower than in 2024. 

In 2024, the United Kingdom recorded a renewed decline in territorial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, reinforcing its long-term decarbonization narrative while also exposing the limits of progress achieved so far. Provisional government statistics show total emissions of 371 MtCO₂e, down 4% from 2023 and 54% below 1990 levels. The reduction was driven primarily by the power sector, where the final closure of coal-fired generation and reduced gas use delivered sizeable gains. 

Yet as the UK enters the second half of the decade, the character of emissions reduction is changing. The “low-hanging fruit” of electricity decarbonisation has largely been harvested. Further progress now depends on structurally harder sectors: road transport, residential heating, industrial processes, and land use. These sectors move more slowly, are more exposed to policy reversals, and are sensitive to consumer behaviour and economic conditions. 

This report provides an evidence-based forecast of how UK emissions are likely to change by the end of 2026, broken down by major sectors. It assesses whether that trajectory is sufficient to meet objectives under the Paris Agreement. Forecast: By the end of 2026, UK territorial emissions are expected to be approximately 3–4% lower than in 2024. 

A conservative interpretation, comparing observed 2024 data with the near-term trajectory implied by the EEP, suggests a reduction of roughly 10 MtCO₂e, equivalent to around −2.5 to 3%. Under the central government projection, emissions continue to decline steadily through 2025 and 2026, reaching a level closer to 4% below 2024 by the end of 2026. This constitutes continued progress, but not acceleration. The pace of reduction is slower than in earlier years when the coal phase-out dominated the numbers. 

Electricity generation: The power sector remains the strongest driver of emissions reduction. In 2024, emissions fell sharply due to lower gas consumption, record renewable output, and the closure of the UK’s last coal-fired power station in September 2024. These structural changes will continue to suppress emissions through 2026. The government’s Clean Power 2030 Action Plan further reinforces expectations of continued decline, even though its full impact will materialise later in the decade. Expectation to 2026: emissions fall sharply, remaining well below historical levels. 

Industry:  Industrial emissions also declined in 2024, partly due to structural changes in iron and steel production, including blast furnace closures and reduced output. Government projections suggest continued, though modest, reductions through 2026 as efficiency improves and fossil fuel use declines incrementally. However, large-scale industrial decarbonisation (hydrogen, CCS) is unlikely to deliver major cuts before the late 2020s—expectation to 2026: moderate decline.

 

Domestic transport: Transport remains the UK’s largest emitting sector. In 2024, domestic transport emissions stood at 110.1 MtCO₂e, around 30% of the national total, and fell by just 2% year-on-year. The main policy lever is the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate under the Vehicle Emissions Trading Schemes (VETS), which requires rising shares of zero-emission vehicle sales (22% of new cars in 2024, increasing to 80% by 2030). However, ongoing political and industry pressure to soften these targets introduces uncertainty. Any dilution would slow emissions reductions in the mid-2020s. Expectation to 2026: emissions decline slowly, remaining stubbornly high. 

Buildings and product use:  The buildings sector represents the clearest short-term risk. In 2024, emissions from buildings and product use increased, driven by higher residential gas consumption. 

While new initiatives, including a renewed focus on home insulation, heat pumps, solar, and batteries, have been announced, their impact before 2026 is likely to be limited by delivery capacity and household uptake—expectation to 2026: flat to slightly declining, but highly weather- and policy-dependent. 

Agriculture, waste, and land use:  Agricultural emissions are projected to decline only marginally, reflecting the difficulty of reducing methane and nitrous oxide without transformative policy shifts. Waste emissions continue a long-term downward trend due to landfill methane capture, but gains are modest. Land-use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) outcomes remain uncertain and exhibit significant variability. 

A further 3–4% reduction by 2026 would improve the trajectory, but it is not sufficient on its own. The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has repeatedly warned that meeting the 2030 target requires faster progress in transport, buildings, and industry during the second half of the decade. 

This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard UK Country Manager, Cesar Antonio.

LEARN MORE RESOURCES

Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (Department for Energy Security and Net Zero) (2025) 2024 UK provisional greenhouse gas emissions statistics. London: UK Government. Available at: https://www.gov.uk  

Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (Department for Energy Security and Net Zero) (2023) Energy and emissions projections 2023 to 2050. London: UK Government. Available at: https://www.gov.uk  

Department for Transport (UK Department for Transport) (2024) Greenhouse gas emissions from transport. London: UK Government. Available at: https://www.gov.uk   

Climate Change Committee (Climate Change Committee) (2025) Progress in reducing emissions: 2025 Report to Parliament. London: CCC. Available at: https://www.theccc.org.uk  

UK Government (UK Government) (2023) The Carbon Budget Order and Net Zero Strategy. London: HMSO. Available at: https://www.gov.uk