The total change from policy shifts estimates suggests a notable reduction in 2026 as the country moves toward its 2030 goal.

South Africa’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected to be on a downward trajectory after peaking in 2024. However, the country remains heavily reliant on coal.  Two policy shifts, including the carbon tax phase two and market-led renewable energy adoption, are expected to drive this decline. South Africa has committed to an annual emissions target of 350-420 MtCO2e by 2030.  The total change estimates suggest a notable reduction in 2026 as the country moves toward its 2030 goal. For the period 2026–2030, the national carbon budget is set at 1.99-3.07 GtCO2e. 

The energy sector is the primary driver of the decline in 2026. Reductions are driven by the gradual decommissioning of aging coal plants and a rapid increase in renewable energy deployment through programs such as the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP). In the industrial Processes sector, emissions are expected to stabilize or decrease as the carbon tax increases in 2026, forcing efficiency improvements in minerals and metals production.

The agriculture sector has already shown a slight decline in emissions with 0.6% between 2020 and 2022 due to a decreasing livestock population, and the trend is expected to persist through 2026. Emissions in the transport sector remain a challenge. These emissions are expected to increase due to failing rail infrastructure, and the adoption of electric vehicles remains slow in South Africa.

Currently, estimates indicate that while South Africa is making progress in reducing emissions, it faces a significant gap in reaching Paris Agreement objectives. South Africa’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) aims for a 350–420 MtCO2e reduction by 2030. However, for South Africa to be truly compatible with a 1.5°C limit, 2030 emissions would need to fall to approximately 304 MtCO2e.

The Low Emission Development Strategy (LEDS) aims to commit South Africa to net-zero by 2050. Therefore, the 2026 reductions are critical milestones, but success depends on scaling the Just Energy Transition (JET) Act and increasing the efficiency of the power grid to support massive renewable integration. 

This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard South Africa Country Manager, Rugare Zhou.

Learn More Resources

1. https://ccpi.org/country/zaf/
2. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-africa/#:~:text=Develop%20targeted%20policy%20interventions%20for,compatible%20with%20the%20Paris%20Agreement.
3. https://energycouncil.org.za/mzansi/emissions/#:~:text=Our%20exports%20are%20increasingly%20under,all%20coal%20power%20stations%2C%20though.
4. https://www.ensafrica.com/news/detail/9398/south-africa-looks-to-strengthen-carbon-tax-f#:~:text=However%2C%20South%20Africa’s%20ambitious%20emissions,tax%2C%20set%20for%20public%20comment.