Nigeria’s greenhouse gas emissions are projected to increase by approximately 1-3% by the end of 2026.
This forecast emerges from a fundamental tension at the heart of the nation’s policy: a set of ambitious, detailed climate commitments exists in direct conflict with immediate economic plans centered on fossil fuel expansion. While the country has positioned itself as a regional climate leader with an enhanced pledge to reduce emissions, the practical reality of boosting oil production and cementing natural gas as a transitional energy source is set to drive a near-term rise in total emissions. This divergence underscores the significant gap between high-level ambition and on-the-ground implementation, placing Nigeria on a challenging path toward its stated Paris Agreement goals.
The core driver of this increase lies in the energy sector, where a dual-track strategy is unfolding. On one hand, the government’s Energy Transition Plan champions solar and hydropower, and a recent legislative reform aims to attract private investment into renewables. On the other hand, the explicit national strategy to expand natural gas as a “transition fuel” for power and industry is leading to new investments in gas infrastructure. Given the severe, persistent instability of the national grid—which forces widespread reliance on diesel generators—and the slow pace of large-scale renewable deployment, the expansion of fossil-based power is likely to outpace clean energy gains in the 2026 timeframe. Consequently, emissions from energy and power are expected to increase slightly but firmly.
Perhaps the most significant contributor to rising emissions will be the oil and gas sector itself, specifically from fugitive methane and continued gas flaring. The government has announced targets to increase crude oil production significantly, and with this heightened activity comes an inherent risk of greater methane leakage. Despite the existence of new methane guidelines and decarbonization templates, enforcement remains critically weak. A review by the Nigerian Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) found that only 15 of 62 companies operating in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector have greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reporting in place, while 47 reported not having such reporting systems. This data, cited in a May 2025 report, highlights a significant compliance gap, especially given the government’s target to increase oil production. The report directly connects this lack of corporate-level accountability to a high risk of increased emissions from flaring and fugitive methane. This systemic failure of enforcement is a primary driver for the forecasted moderate emissions increase in the oil and gas sector, underscoring how ambitious federal guidelines can be rendered ineffective without robust implementation.
Other sectors tell a more mixed but ultimately insufficient story. Transportation emissions are set to grow steadily, fueled by the demands of Africa’s largest economy. Although policies promoting electric and compressed natural gas vehicles are in place, they are not being deployed at a scale sufficient to offset baseline growth. A potential bright spot exists in the building sector, where a push to shift households from firewood and kerosene to cleaner cooking fuels like liquefied petroleum gas could begin to reduce emissions from a major pollution source. However, given that over 80% of the population lacks access to clean cooking, the absolute impact by 2026 will be modest. Similarly, while ambitious plans exist to curb deforestation, historical challenges in policy implementation suggest emissions from agriculture and forestry will remain stable or drift slightly upward.
This projected increase carries serious implications for Nigeria’s international climate commitments. The nation has pledged to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 29% by 2030 and 32% by 2035, relative to 2018 levels, aiming for net-zero emissions by 2060. An increase in 2026 means the emissions curve is bending in the wrong direction, delaying the necessary peak and necessitating steeper, more drastic, and more costly reductions later in the decade. Every new investment in a long-lived gas pipeline or export terminal deepens the “carbon lock-in,” making the eventual transition to a net-zero economy more complex and expensive, and pushing the 2060 goal further out of reach.
The single greatest variable that could alter this trajectory is the monumental issue of climate finance. Nigeria estimates it requires $337 billion by 2035 to fully implement its climate plans, with about 80% contingent on international support. A decisive influx of capital, directed toward modernizing the grid and curbing methane, could begin to bend the curve. Without it, the core target is at risk. Thus, 2026 becomes a critical test of both Nigeria and the international community. It will test whether the government can move from designing policies to enforcing them, particularly on methane, and whether the international community will translate financial pledges into tangible projects. The current forecast of rising emissions is not inevitable but reversing it will require a decisive break from the status quo of promising a green future while investing in a fossil-based present.
This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Nigeria Country Manager, Michael Johnson.