India’s total GHG emissions are projected to rise modestly by 1-1.5% in 2026, reaching approximately 3.25-3.27 billion tonnes CO₂e from 2025 levels, driven by continued economic growth but moderated by aggressive renewable energy expansion and efficiency gains.
Total Emissions Projection
India’s fossil fuel CO₂ emissions grew by just 1.4% in 2025 to 3.22 billion tonnes, a slowdown from 4% in 2024, credits to renewables surpassing 50% of installed capacity (267 GW non-fossil by end-2025), and reduced coal reliance. Including all GHGs and LULUCF sinks (which offset ~22%), net emissions remain lower, but absolute levels will edge up in 2026 amid GDP growth of ~6-7%. Expect similar deceleration to 1-1.5% growth, as solar/wind additions exceed 50 GW annually and policies like viability gap funding for battery storage curb fossil demand.
Sectoral Breakdown
Major sectors show varied trends, with energy dominating emissions at ~76% but slowing the fastest due to clean energy shifts.
| Sector | 2025 Est. Share (%) | Projected 2026 Change | Key Drivers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy (power, coal) | 75-76 | +0.5% | Renewables at 267 GW (+23% YoY), coal share down to ~64%; 44.5 GW RE added in 2025 | |
| Transport | 8-13 | +2-3% | EV push and low-carbon policies, but rising vehicle demand offsets gains | |
| Agriculture | 14 | Stable (+0-1%) | Methane from livestock/crops steady; minor efficiency from better monsoons | |
| Industry (IPPU: cement, steel, textiles) | 13-24 (mining/metals 13%, cement 7%) | +1.5-2% | GHG intensity targets for aluminium/cement; textiles minor (~1-2% via energy use), circular policies emerging | |
| Waste | 2.5 | +1% | Marginal rise with urbanization | |
LULUCF sinks grow ~7-12% annually, absorbing ~22% of emissions.
Reasons for Estimates
Projections draw on Global Carbon Project data showing a 2025 slowdown due to renewables (50%+ capacity) and monsoons curbing power demand, extrapolated to 2026 using MNRE trends (RE >250 GW by 2027). Energy efficiency (PAT scheme) and sectoral targets (e.g., MoEFCC for cement/aluminium) limit industry rises; agriculture is stable per BUR-4. No major 2026 policy reversals anticipated, though coal inertia persists.
Alignment with Paris Goals
India’s NDC targets a 45% reduction in emissions intensity by 2030 (from 2005) and 500 GW of non-fossil capacity; on track to exceed the intensity goal (already ~36% down) with current trajectory. A 1-1.5% absolute rise supports this, as GDP growth outpaces emissions, but challenges net-zero by 2070 given coal dominance (~70% power mix). No 50% absolute reduction pledged by 2030/2035 (inconsistent with NDC); 2026 trends aid peaking pre-2030 if RE hits 60% share, enabling LT-LEDS transitions.
This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard India Country Manager, Ankita Padelkar.