France is not on a trajectory compatible with a 50 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.
France’s greenhouse gas emissions are expected to decline slightly by the end of 2026, but not at a pace consistent with Paris Agreement objectives. National inventory data indicate that territorial emissions decreased from about 376 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent in 2023 to roughly 369 million tonnes in 2024, a reduction of around 1.8 percent. Based on current policies and recent trends, total emissions in 2026 are estimated at approximately 360 to 365 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent, representing a further reduction of about 2 to 3 percent compared to 2024.
Energy sector
Emissions from energy production are expected to continue declining modestly. France’s electricity mix remains largely low-carbon due to nuclear power, and improved reactor availability since 2023 has reduced reliance on gas-fired power plants. Continued expansion of renewable electricity, particularly solar, should contribute additional reductions, though permitting delays and grid constraints limit faster progress.
Transport sector
Transport remains France’s largest emitting sector, at around 125 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent in 2024. By 2026, emissions are expected to decline only slightly. Electric vehicle sales are rising, but internal combustion engines still dominate the vehicle fleet. Road traffic volumes remain high, and aviation emissions continue to recover, limiting overall reductions.
Industry sector
Industrial emissions are likely to continue to decline slowly through 2026. Some reductions reflect energy-efficiency improvements, but a significant share results from lower industrial activity rather than from deep structural decarbonization. Without stronger investment in low-carbon industrial processes, progress will remain limited.
Buildings sector
Emissions from buildings are expected to decrease only marginally. While renovation programs exist, the pace of deep energy renovation remains insufficient, and rising costs risk slowing progress, particularly in private housing.
Agriculture sector
Agricultural emissions are expected to remain largely stable through 2026. Livestock numbers are limited, and the gradual adoption of low-emission farming practices constrains significant reductions in the short term.
Taken together, these sectoral trends indicate that France is not on a trajectory compatible with a 50 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. Achieving that target would require annual reductions of around 5 percent, well above current trends. While carbon neutrality by 2050 remains an official objective, the 2026 outlook suggests that emissions reductions remain incremental rather than transformational.
This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard France Country Manager, Camille Huret.