Two-thirds of Germany’s coastline is currently eroding.

General Situation 

Sea level rise in Germany is a pressing issue that reflects global trends and is accelerating rapidly, posing substantial risks to the country’s extensive low-lying coastlines along the North Sea and Baltic Sea. This phenomenon not only threatens property values and community safety but also influences insurance rates and urban planning. As Germany grapples with these realities, significant efforts are underway to enhance coastal protection. However, discussions about limits on future development in vulnerable areas are gaining traction as well.

Germany, while mostly landlocked, still boasts approximately 3,700 kilometers (2,300 miles) of coastline along the North Sea and Baltic Sea. The German coast is largely characterized by shallow marshes, dunes, and beach walls, but it faces a daunting reality: two-thirds of its coastline is currently eroding. In stark contrast to the predominantly low-lying features, only about 11% of the coastline (approximately 420 kilometers) consists of cliffs. 

The Baltic Sea coast is particularly vulnerable, with more than half of its shoreline forming the Bodden Coast—shallow bays and inlets cut off from the open sea by islands and peninsulas. Recent investigations indicate that approximately 75% of Germany’s sandy shores are subject to erosion. The average retreat rate on the Baltic coastline is about 40 centimeters per year, with large sections experiencing annual retreats of 20 to 30 centimeters. In the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, up to 70% of the coastline is permanently retreating, significantly threatening local communities and ecosystems.

In neighboring countries such as the Netherlands, which face even more significant risks due to their extensive low-lying areas, robust engineering solutions are in place to combat imminent threats posed by rising waters. The Dutch have long recognized the need for effective coastal protection, serving as a cautionary tale for Germany.

Trends in Sea Level Rise

From a historical perspective, sea level rise trends in Germany are alarming. Between 1975 and 2025, the North Sea coast has witnessed a long-term increase of 20 to 25 centimeters per century, while the Baltic coast has risen by about 15 centimeters per century. Globally, the rate of sea level rise has doubled, jumping from approximately 2.3 millimeters per year (1993-2002) to 4.6 millimeters per year (2013-2022). Looking ahead to 2025 and beyond, projections show that global sea levels could rise an additional 25 to 43 centimeters by 2050, with potential increases exceeding 1 meter by 2100 under high-emission scenarios. In extreme “business-as-usual” cases, we could face rises of several meters by 2300.

Impact of sea level rise in Germany

Threat to Ecosystems

The delicate ecosystems along the coast, particularly within the Wadden Sea—a UNESCO World Heritage Site—are seriously impacted by these changes. The Wadden Sea, which spans approximately 300 kilometers of Germany’s coastline along the North Sea, comprises extensive intertidal flats and shoals of fine sand and silt. The ability of this vital natural barrier to keep pace with rising sea levels depends heavily on the sediment that flows into its channels from the North Sea. Unfortunately, recent developments indicate that the sediment supply to these intertidal areas may not be sufficient to sustain them against the encroaching water.

Changing Coastal Geography

The coastal geography itself is changing dramatically, with rising sea levels causing the recession of sandy beaches and the erosion of two-thirds of the German coastline. Low-lying marshlands and estuaries are particularly at risk of permanent transformation and land loss, necessitating a proactive approach to mitigate these impacts.

Impact on Property and Community

In Germany, over 3 million people live in areas at risk of sea-level rise, particularly along the country’s approximately 3,700 kilometers (2,300 miles) of coastline. Regions such as North Friesland and Dithmarschen are especially vulnerable, facing significant land loss and dire socio-economic consequences. Major cities like Hamburg confront not only the challenges posed by storm surges but also rising groundwater levels and pluvial flooding, exacerbated by urbanization that seals natural drainage systems.

The impact of rising sea levels on property and community life is profound. Many low-lying areas face the threat of permanent inundation, and communities are experiencing increasingly frequent and severe flooding during storm surges. Coastal erosion is becoming a more pressing concern, jeopardizing both infrastructure and natural ecosystems. Additionally, the rising waters are leading to the salinization of groundwater and agricultural soil, further complicating life for those living in these regions.

Implications for Planning and Insurance

As these trends accelerate, the implications for planning and insurance are significant. The increasing risk of climate-related damage is causing insurers to raise premiums, with the German Insurance Association (GDV) warning that homeowners might see premiums double within the next decade if drastic preventive measures aren’t implemented. This has sparked political discussions about the need for mandatory natural hazard insurance, as only around half of buildings currently have coverage against such risks.

Adapting Urban Planning

In response, urban planners are adopting a blend of complex engineering solutions—such as constructing dikes and storm surge barriers—and nature-based approaches —such as wetland restoration and green roof initiatives. There’s a concerted effort to actively discourage new construction in high-risk areas, with proposals from the GDV suggesting that properties built in designated floodplains should no longer be covered by insurance.

These efforts are continual and resource-intensive. Reinforcing coastal defenses requires a long-term approach, with ongoing upgrades needed to keep pace with the accelerating rise in sea levels. While specific national cost estimates for future measures can be elusive, it is clear that the economic impact of inaction could far outweigh the costs of implementing protective solutions. For perspective, a single extreme weather event, such as the 2021 Ahr Valley flood, resulted in over €42 billion in damages, underscoring the financial stakes involved in these climate challenges. Expert bodies and professional societies are calling for a discussion on and implementation of limits on future development in low-lying coastal regions. The insurance industry also advocates for policies to stop approving new construction in high-risk areas.

This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Germany Country Manager, Monique Ritter.

Engagement Resources: 

• Meere Online. Das Informationsportal der deutschen Meeresforschung. [Seas Online. The Information Portal of German Sea research: Link
• Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie: Factsheet Sea Level Rise: Link
• German Insurance Association. Homeowners insurance in the future will only have an elemental protection module. Link   
• Sea-Level Rise in Northern Germany: A GIS-Based Simulation and Visualization. Journal of Cartography and Geographic Information. Link
• Universität Hamburg: Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook ’24. Link

Munich Re [German multinational insurance company]. How catastrophes limit prosperity – weather disasters are a growing burden, also for many industrialised countries. Link

• Table Briefings. Possible as early as 2050: German professional societies warn of three-degree warming. Link