Implementing its National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (NBSAP) and “30by30” conservation targets could elevate Japan’s NBS contributions to 15% of emission reductions by 2042.

Japan is leveraging its rich natural capital to combat climate change through nature-based solutions (NBS), integrating ecosystem conservation, restoration, and sustainable management into its decarbonization strategy. While technological innovation remains central to Japan’s climate policy, NBS now plays a complementary role in achieving its enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets. This piece examines Japan’s NBS initiatives, their measurable impact on emissions, and how they compare to other mitigation strategies.

Japan’s Climate Commitments and NBS Integration

Japan’s updated NDC commits to decreasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 46% by 2030 (compared to 2013) and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. The National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (NBSAP) 2023–2030 explicitly incorporates NBS as part of a “Nature-Positive by 2030” mission, aiming to conserve 30% of land and marine areas by 2030 (“30by30”) while enhancing carbon sinks. These targets align with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, positioning NBS as a dual tool for climate and biodiversity goals. Three pronounced nature-based strategies are being focused on:

1. Forest Carbon Sinks

• Forests cover 68% of Japan’s land area, representing its largest NBS asset. The government employs:
• Afforestation and Reforestation: Expanding forest cover through programs targeting degraded lands.
• Sustainable Forestry Management: Thinning overstocked plantations to boost growth rates and carbon sequestration.
• Urban Greening: Increasing tree cover in cities like Tokyo and Osaka.

According to the IPCC-aligned J-credit scheme, Japan’s forests remove 38 million tons (Mt) of CO₂ annually through managed sinks. A 2024 Scientific Reports study projects that optimized forest management could offset 15.3% of Japan’s annual emissions by 2042 (175.5 Mt CO₂/year). However, sequestration is expected to peak by 2030 without aggressive afforestation and decline thereafter.

2. Coastal and Agricultural Systems

• Blue Carbon Ecosystems: Mangrove restoration in Okinawa and seagrass bed conservation in Hokkaido aim to protect coastlines while storing carbon.
• Sustainable Agriculture: The Ministry of Agriculture promotes rice paddy water management (reducing methane emissions) and agroforestry, which could sequester 8.5 Mt CO₂/year in soils by 2030.

3. Carbon Credit Innovation

• Japan is emerging as a carbon market leader through initiatives like:
• Marubeni MOL Forests: A joint venture establishing 10,000 hectares of new forests in India, generating tradable credits by 2028.
• GX Promotion Act: A growth-oriented carbon pricing mechanism supporting NBS projects domestically and via international partnerships like the Asia Zero Emission Community.

Impact on Emissions: Current vs. Potential

Japan’s nature-based solutions (NBS) currently play a modest but measurable role in mitigating emissions. Forests and agricultural soils offset approximately 4.1% of the country’s annual emissions, equivalent to 47.7 million tons (Mt) of CO₂ per year against total emissions of 1,150 Mt in 2020. Coastal ecosystems, such as mangroves and seagrass beds, contribute only marginally to carbon sequestration. Large blue carbon projects—focused on marine and coastal habitats—remain in early development phases and lack operational scalability.

Looking ahead, Japan’s NBS could deliver significantly more climate benefits. According to government projections, the full implementation of its National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (NBSAP) and “30by30” conservation targets could elevate NBS contributions to 15% of emission reductions by 2042. However, realizing this potential hinges on overcoming critical challenges, including doubling current afforestation rates and resolving competing land-use demands between conservation, agriculture, and urban expansion. Without accelerated policy action, Japan risks underutilizing its natural systems as a tool for achieving net-zero goals.

Comparative Analysis: NBS vs. Technological Solutions

Strategy	Contribution to 2030 Target	Key Challenges
Nature-Based	5–15%	Land scarcity, slow ROI
Renewables	50% (if 2030 RE target met)	Grid integration, storage costs
Hydrogen/Ammonia	10% (industry/energy)	High production costs

While Japan’s “Green Growth Strategy” prioritizes renewables and hydrogen, NBS provides critical co-benefits:

• Biodiversity: 30 by 30 targets aim to reverse habitat loss in 22% of terrestrial ecosystems.
• Rural Economies: Forest carbon credits could inject $1.2 billion/year into rural communities by 2030.

Japan’s NBS framework globally lags behind Costa Rica (where forests offset 25% of emissions) but surpasses techno-centric peers like South Korea.

Data Tracking and Policy Gaps

Japan employs two primary systems to track the efficacy of nature-based solutions (NBS): the National Forest Inventories, which combine satellite imaging and ground-based surveys to monitor biomass changes and carbon stocks in forests, and the J-Credit System, a certification mechanism that quantifies and verifies carbon offsets generated through sustainable agriculture and forestry practices. Despite these tools, critical gaps hinder comprehensive NBS evaluation. Blue carbon accounting—measuring sequestration in coastal ecosystems like mangroves and seagrass beds—lacks standardized metrics, leaving marine projects underrepresented in national climate reports. Additionally, urban green spaces remain underutilized, sequestering just 1.2 million tons of CO₂ annually through initiatives like rooftop gardens and park expansions. Addressing these gaps will require policy reforms to integrate marine ecosystems into carbon markets and incentivize urban greening as part of municipal climate strategies.

To balance nature and technology, Japan’s NBS initiatives, though secondary to industrial decarbonization, are scaling rapidly. The 2023 NBSAP and carbon market innovations signal a shift toward valuing natural capital as an ecological and economic asset. While NBS alone cannot meet Japan’s net-zero target, its role in bridging the “last mile” of emission reductions, particularly post-2040, will prove indispensable. Success hinges on resolving land-use trade-offs and expanding international NBS partnerships, as seen in the Indian afforestation project. As climate urgency grows, Japan’s hybrid approach offers a template for harmonizing technological and natural systems.

This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Japan Country Manager Delmaria Richards.

Learn More Resources

1. Japan Climate Initiative. (2025). Japan’s pathway to net-zero. https://japanclimate.org/english/
2. Ministry of the Environment, Japan. (2023). National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan 2023–2030. https://www.env.go.jp/content/000256855.pdf
3. com. (2025). Japan’s $70 billion carbon market push. https://carboncredits.com/japan-steps-up-as-carbon-credit-leader-with-70-billion-push-for-net-zero/
4. Wang et al. (2024). Forest carbon removal potential in Japan. Scientific Reports, 14(1). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-51308-z
5. (2024). Japan’s first biennial transparency report. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Japan’s%20First%20Biennial%20Transparency%20Report_241031r.pdf
6. World Bank. (2022). Costa Rica’s forest conservation pays off. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2022/11/16/costa-rica-s-forest-conservation-pays-off