The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently indicated in its Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update report that there is a 50% chance that global temperature will reach 1.5 °C by 2026. When the Paris Agreement set this limit, the probability was just 10%.
According to the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)’s 2024 Emissions Gap Report, published this October, annual greenhouse gas emissions are at an all-time high, with a 1.3% increase last year. To limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C and avoid the worst impacts of climate change, emissions need to decrease by 9% annually through 2030. However, current global policies (except those of the European Union, which align with this threshold) are leading us towards a catastrophic 3.1°C temperature increase by the century’s end. The report states that “confidence is low regarding implementing net-zero commitments.” “The time for truth has arrived,” declared UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. “We need an unprecedented scale and pace of global mobilisation, starting now, before the next round of climate commitments,” she asserted.
However, despite all scientific evidence, a segment of the population still opposes measures to mitigate climate change. Some even claim there is no human impact on the climate. Beyond these extremists, most citizens feel let down by the inexperience and unreliability of climate change public policies that political parties from both sides continue to propose. It’s not a matter of urban or rural divides but rather a distrust in the public policies guiding us towards sustainable development.
The study “The Reluctant towards Climate Change Policies: Who They Are, What They Think, and How They Vote,” conducted by Lluís Orriols from Carlos III University of Madrid and Jorge Galindo from EsadeEcPol, starts by presenting data from the Spanish Center for Sociological Research (CIS) in September 2022. According to CIS, 8.6% of respondents do not believe climate change is happening. The study also highlights another key fact: 71% of Spaniards believe climate effects are evident, a perception similar to that in Italy (70%) and far higher than in other European countries like Portugal (59%) or the United Kingdom (45%). Yet these perceptions do not seem to impact the government’s socio-political-economic measures.
The report reveals that middle-class Spaniards and left-wing voters are the strongest supporters of State actions against climate change, while high and low-income groups tend to be more opposed. The reluctant group is predominantly male and grows among middle-aged individuals, specifically those aged 45-54. Younger people aged 18-34 and those over 65 show stronger support for government measures against climate change.
Residents of rural towns with fewer than 10,000 inhabitants tend to oppose climate change measures. However, the trend shifts towards increased support in cities with more than 10,000 inhabitants, which grows with city size. The authors note that this might suggest a divide between rural and urban populations. However, both groups ultimately feel misled by public policies that claim to lead us toward sustainable development.
Major environmental organisations, supported by urban middle classes, oppose installing large renewable energy projects in rural areas due to their negative impact on nature conservation. These organisations argue that conservation is essential to achieving emissions reduction goals and warn of the danger of pitting renewables against biodiversity. They also emphasise that necessary renewable energy development can be done without critical impacts on ecosystems. Thus, policies must address climate change and biodiversity loss work in tandem, with public policies playing a significant role.
For example, wind energy has suffered due to the mismanagement of renewable policy. Ironically, a left-wing government, under Socialist Prime Minister Rodríguez Zapatero, prioritised installing wind turbines in rural areas instead of near major cities (the primary source of energy demand), which drew strong opposition from rural inhabitants and urban environmental groups due to the negative impacts on biodiversity, landscape, and the environment.
Additionally, this left-wing administration continued a favourable policy from the previous right-wing government, encouraging families to invest in solar energy. However, when the EU limit was reached, this policy was reversed, leading to chaos and financial ruin for many investors. This situation, which occurred in the 2010s in Spain, has taken years to recover as the energy industry’s lobbyists continue to resist losing power to more efficient self-consumption models.
Thousands of environmental organisations across Spain, both international and local, oppose the ongoing policy of installing large wind farms far from major demand centres, which negatively affects landscapes and biodiversity and encourages migration to big cities by impoverishing rural areas. These organisations also support solar energy self-consumption. Thus, paradoxically, environmental groups in favour of renewables are firmly against large wind (and solar) energy projects, not because they oppose renewable energy but because of how its development has been managed by politically influenced regulators who cater to the interests of large energy companies, where many politicians eventually sit on the board once their “public service” ends.
Reversing this situation seems straightforward, though complicated to implement. By promoting self-consumption through coherent public policies and locating necessary wind or solar farms near major demand points (cities and factories), the high land values around large urban areas could be redirected to sustainable investment in climate change public policies in what’s known as “emptied Spain.”
Influencer
Fundación Renovables
ismael.morales@fundacionrenovables.org
This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Spain Country Manager Juanjo Santos.