The update of the Spanish Forest Strategy and the Spanish Forest Plan in 2022 brought with it the publication of the latest data on the state of forests in Spain. With this data, the Forest Map of Spain and the National Forest Inventory were created, showing that just over 28 million hectares are forest areas that meet the legal definition of forest lands, covering 55.8% of the territory. Over 18.7 million hectares are wooded, representing 66% of the forest area and nearly 37% of Spanish territory. Spain is the second country in the EU in terms of forest area, surpassed only by Sweden, and ranks third in a wooded area, behind Sweden and Finland. The largest tree formation is the dehesa, which occupies nearly 20% of the forested area. This is followed by holm oak forests, with 14.5%, Aleppo pine forests, with around 11%, and mixed forest masses, combining conifers and native tree species. Spain is home to over 7 billion trees, with the holm oak being the most predominant.
A study by the Center for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (CREAF, 2018) shows that Spanish forests have accumulated CO2 at an average rate of 5 tons per hectare per year in the past two decades. The absorption of CO2 by forest ecosystems is key to the concept of “net zero emissions” that Europe aims to achieve by 2050. When calculating Spain’s commitments to the NDC to reduce greenhouse gases, forests in Spain have a clear sink effect. In 2023, Spain absorbed 47.6 million tons of CO2 equivalent, equivalent to 17.3% of total gross emissions that year.
However, there is concern about the trend that the forestry sector may experience in the coming years in Spain due to the negative impact of extreme weather events on forest masses. In the not-too-distant future, forest ecosystems could become sources of emissions, as is already happening in other European countries (e.g., those from wildfires, destruction of wetlands, etc.). Compared to 2022, absorptions have been higher, but the year-on-year variation is very low: +0.4%. In the last twenty years, we have experienced severe climate change, with an average temperature increase of 1ºC and a 6% decrease in precipitation. Under these conditions, the CREAF study has detected a significant reduction in the growth rates of our forests. The study’s results also show that forests in the wet areas of Spain, less accustomed to water scarcity, are the most vulnerable to these changes. Specifically, the study reveals that some of the wet forests in northern Spain have already reduced their growth rates by up to 50%. If warming increases, as predicted in climate change models, these forests could become net CO2 emitters in the medium and long term and experience significant carbon stock losses.
World Bank data shows Spain has gained nearly 35% of forest area since 1990. This increase in forest cover since 1990 has mainly been due to the abandonment of forest management, generally because it is no longer profitable. Today, 80% of Spain’s forests are privately owned, especially in the north. Forest management costs 1,000 euros per hectare every fifteen years (CREAF, 2018). In 2010, government investment in forests was and continues to be insufficient, averaging 56.38 euros per hectare. Additionally, having larger and more densely populated forests today than 10 or 20 years ago—an undeniable strategic advantage for the future—does not mean the forests are in good health. The global change scenario we find ourselves in does not favor their conservation, especially if they are not properly managed.
In the Land use, land-use change, and forestry sector (LULUCF), projections in the trend scenario point to a saturation of CO2 absorption capacity by natural sinks, attributable to a variety of causes, among which the impacts of climate change on the Spanish forestry sector (rising temperatures and lower water availability, especially), the scarcity of land with specific management instruments to increase CO2 storage capacity, the current low rate of forest reforestation, or the widespread increase in desertification risk across the territory are notable.
The proposed measures in forest and agricultural sinks aim to reverse this trend, although due to the nature of natural sinks, these measures require time to improve absorption rates while ensuring the maintenance of terrestrial ecosystems’ social, ecological, and economic functions. It is, therefore, important to consider the long-term effect of these measures beyond 2030. Additionally, it is necessary to highlight their benefit in other key aspects, such as maintaining and improving ecosystem functions or creating rural employment.
By the accounting rules established in Regulation (EU) 2018/841 for emissions and absorptions in the categories of afforested land, deforested land, managed forest land, managed cropland, and managed grasslands (with the inclusion of managed wetlands starting in 2026, for which long-term measures aligned with the Long-Term Strategy for 2050 are expected), Spain anticipates compliance with the “no debit” rule, which ensures that emissions do not exceed absorptions, calculated as the sum of total emissions and total absorptions from its territory in the aforementioned accounting categories.
Similarly, under these same accounting rules, Spain expects to exceed 29.1 MtCO2 during the 2021-2030 period established in Regulation (EU) 2018/842 as the flexibility to achieve binding annual reductions in GHG emissions. However, the government does not plan to use natural sinks to meet Spain’s commitments for 2030 under the PNIEC. Nevertheless, there is a clear need for the Spanish government to implement measures that incentivize carbon absorption by LULUCF, not so much through protective and conservation measures, which are also important, but through proper management for the sustainable use of forests. These concrete measures must be transferred from the PNIEC to the NDC 3.0 tool.
Joan Pino Vilalta
Director
CREAF (Centro de Investigación Ecológica y Aplicaciones Forestales)
This post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Spain Country Manager Juanjo Santos.