Brazil—No 100% 2050 Commitment
Benchmark: 48% of renewables by 2026
Brazil’s Paris Agreement commitment aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 37% below 2005 levels by 2025, and 43% by 2030. It was the first developing country to commit to an absolute reduction of emissions from a base year, as opposed to reductions based on projected emissions or per unit of GDP. This goal will be implemented within the framework of the National Policy on Climate Change (Política National de Mudança do Clima—PNMC, Law No. 12,187/2009), the Forest Code (Código Florestal, Law No. 12,651/2012), the National System of Conservation Units Law (Sistema Nacional de Unidades de Conservação, Law No. 9,985/2000), the Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan (Plano Decenal de Expansão de Energia-PDE), and relevant regulation, programs and planning instruments, in place or to be developed.
Brazil focuses on reducing emissions mostly from decreasing deforestation, but their commitment also proposes achieving a 45% share of renewables in the energy mix by 2030. According to the environmental NGO community, however, this goal does not represent actual progress considering that renewables made up 44% of primary energy production in 2015, and, in 2016, increased by 2.2%.
To date, official results from deforestation control and prevention policies have kept Brazil on track to meet its commitments as established by the PNMC. Brazil has also set targets to increase the share of renewables to generate electricity, beyond hydropower, by 23% by 2030. Currently, hydropower generates about 66% of Brazil’s electricity; while other renewable energy sources, such as biomass, solar and wind together account for less than 10%. Nonetheless, on the positive side, the trend to increase the use of solar and wind power has been steady in the past 4 years.
The Ministry of Energy and Mines in Brazil (MME) publishes the outlook and guidelines for energy demand and production in its Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan (Plano Decenal de Expansão de Energia-(PDE), which is revised every year, and is submitted to public discussion online to receive contributions.
The PDE 2026 establishes the growth of both production and consumption of energy, in line with the PNMC and its climate commitments. It indicates that energy needed to boost the economy will reach 351 million tonnes equivalent of oil (toneladas equivalentes de petróleo-tep) by 2026, growing at a rate of 2 percent a year. Renewables should reach 48% of the total by 2026. Wind power has increased by 77 % and ethanol by 18% in 2016 relative to 2015.
Through investments in infrastructure, power demand is expected to reach 64.1GW by 2026, of which 50% will be provided by new renewable sources, such as biomass, wind and solar. On the other hand, oil production is expected to double by the end of the period.
A partnership between IDEAAAS institute, Instituto Peabiru, Mott Foundation and the Federal University of Pará developed a pilot project in North state Pará to provide low-cost clean energy to isolated communities in the Amazon region. In the first phase, 22 households are participating. The program Light for a Better Life (Luz para uma Vida Melhor) offers a photovoltaic system, the “Bakana Solar” that will allow for basic energy needs such as lighting and cellular recharge points.
Sources in Portuguese
Online news and specialized electronic magazine https://www.canalenergia.com.br/noticias/53027141/oferta-interna-de-energia-e-formada-por-435-de-energia-renovavel
Website of the Federal Agency for Energy Research (Empresa de Pesquisa Energética – EPE) http://www.epe.gov.br/pde/Paginas/default.aspx
Webpage of the Light for a Better Life Project in the Peabiru Institute´s site https://peabiru.org.br/luz-para-uma-uma-vida-melhor/
Facebook page of the NGO Institute for the Development of Alternative Energies and Self-Sustainability. https://www.facebook.com/IDEAAS-213626731992400/
Sources in English