Brazil Increases its Paris Agreement NDC

Released on November 09, 2023, data from the Deforestation Monitoring Program in the Legal Amazon (Prodes) from the National Institute for Space Research (Inpe) show that annual deforestation in the Amazon was below 10 thousand km² for the first time since 2018. From August 2022 to July 2023, 9,001 km² of forest were lost, a reduction of 22.3% compared to the previous period.

In September, at the Climate Action Summit in New York, Brazil announced the correction of its climate commitment that had been reduced under the previous government. To correct the last two updates to Brazil’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which in practice allowed a volume of greenhouse gas emissions greater than the commitment presented at the Signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, the country presented new target percentages. The Brazilian climate objective went from 37% to 48% of emissions reduction by 2025 and from 50% to 53% by 2030.

The 11th edition of SEEG – Greenhouse Gas System, showed that Brazil, even under the previous government, had an 8% drop in gross greenhouse gas emissions in 2022. This was driven by the reduction in the deforestation rate in the Amazon last year and by abundant rains that caused a record reduction in the activation of fossil thermoelectric plants. The country went from 2.5 billion tons of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2021 to 2.3 GtCO2e in 2022.

Although the new government has re-established federal climate governance, and with the fight against deforestation having resumed, the legislative threats to the socio-environmental agenda today are even more significant than in the previous government.

Pressure remains on the government to make the BR 319 road (between Porto Velho and Manaus) comply with environmental conditions and to stop oil exploration in the Equatorial Margin, which includes the mouth of the Amazon River. During COP 28, Brazil won the “Fossil of the Day” anti-award at COP28 for joining OPEC+.

Only by fulfilling President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s promise to eliminate deforestation in all biomes by 2030 does Brazil have a chance to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 and eliminate the use of fossil fuels (or radically reduce their use). The government also needs to coordinate with Congress to prevent the approval of bills that undermine social, environmental, and climate protection.

This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Brazil Country Manager Carlos Alexandre de Oliveira.




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