Brazil: COP 28 Recommendations for Strengthening Country Climate Ambition

Dear Diplomat André Corrêa do Lago,


My name is Carlos Alexandre de Oliveira. I am the Country Manager for Brazil for The Climate Scorecard (, a non-profit organization that monitors the climate policies and programs of the central greenhouse gas-emitting countries.

Based on a review of Brazil’s policies, much can be done to increase your country’s climate ambition, achieve global goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2050. Therefore, we suggest you adopt the following goals and announce these goals at COP28.

#1 The Brazilian government published on October 26th, 2023, the update of its nationally determined contribution to the Paris Agreement (NDC), returning to the ambitions deposited at the UN in 2015. The resolution published in the Official Gazette of the Union reestablishes the 2015 NDC ambition on absolute greenhouse gas (GHG) values. This means the target is reaching 2025 with absolute emissions of 1.32 billion tons of CO2 (GtCO2e), falling to 1.2 GtCO2e by 2030.

We suggest that Brazil announce a revision of the targets listed at COP28. That instead, the country is committed to submitting a new NDC, compatible with 1.5°C, which would imply the elimination of deforestation and a net emissions limit of 400 million tons of CO2 equivalent in 2030, equivalent to a reduction of 81% (according to the Third National Inventory) to 83% (according to the Fourth Inventory) in relation to 2005. This target is aligned with the Climate Observatory (2020 ) proposal and the most ambitious limit of the Talanoa/Coppe/ICS (2021) scenarios.

There is a lot of work ahead: from controlling deforestation (responsible for the majority of national emissions) to approving a regulated carbon market, including the design of policies to encourage green industry in Brazil and the delicate decision about whether or not to explore oil in the Amazon.

#2 That Brazil announces that it will commit to ending the use of fossil fuels and declare a moratorium on oil exploration in the Amazon.

#3 That Brazil announces the full veto of the Temporal Framework Bill and decrees an early veto of all projects in transit in the Senate that reduce environmental protection.

I hope you will incorporate these suggestions into your presentation at COP28, and I look forward to hearing from you.


Carlos Alexandre de Oliveira

Climate Scorecard – Country Manager


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