This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Australia Country Manager Julian Atchison
Australia’s current emissions—emissions from energy, transport, and industrial processes have risen 18% since 1990
The latest official government figures for Australia’s overall emissions show they have fallen to levels not seen since the mid 90s. Since 1990, there’s been about a 20% fall:
Source: Australian Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources (2021)
Though it is important to recognize here that the debate about inclusion of emission abatements from Land Use, Land Use-Change & Forestry (LULUCF) casts doubt on the impact of these figures (we first raised this issue at Climate Scorecard in December 2020). Excluding these abatements, Australia’s emissions continue an upward trend interrupted only by the global pandemic:
Source: Australian Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources (2021)
Australia’s 2030 emission reduction target is relatively paltry (and the subject of high controversy), standing at a 32% reduction on 1990 levels. For much of 2019-20 the Australian government was intent on somehow using Kyoto Protocol “carryovers” to account for half this target, despite the legality of this move being called into question numerous times. Those plans seem to have been abandoned, leaving Australia with an uphill battle to achieve another 10% cut over the next decade.
Achieving a 32% reduction by 2030 is Doubtful
Excluding LULUCF, the above graph shows the critical problem for Australia, since 1990 emission from energy, transport and industrial processes have risen by 18%. Clearly, Australia is struggling to drive deep decarbonization beyond the “low-hanging fruit”. Emissions from electricity generation are falling and will continue to fall as renewable energy increases its percent share in Australia:
Source: Australian Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources (2021)
And agriculture emissions continue a downward trend (boosted by announcements like the new farmland stewardship scheme launched in late May – read more below):
Source: Australian Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources (2021)
However, emissions from stationary energy, transport and fugitive emissions all continue to climb. Perhaps the most troubling is transport. If not for the pandemic, transport emissions in Australia would be well on their way to doubling since 1990:
Source: Australian Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources (2021)
So, the numbers don’t lie. Australia’s best performing emissions reduction sector is the highly controversial LULUCF. Promising abatements from decarbonizing electricity generation are being wiped out by fugitive methane emissions from gas projects, and there is no clear pathway forward for the transport sector. Even allowing LULUCF to be included, it’s hard to see where the next 10% reduction comes from.
Australia Has No Net-Zero 2050 Target
Australia has no net-zero by 2050 target, and the current government has shown extreme reticence to even consider a public discussion around it. Australia has been the subject of international criticism (particularly from the UK) for intending to attend COP26 with no updated emissions reduction pledge. The Biden administration has labeled Australia’s efforts “insufficient”, warning that Australia’s huge decarbonization potential is being squandered. Although Prime Minister Scott Morrison raised the net-zero issue at a recent mining event, his approach was still an overtly political one: Australia would reach net zero “the Frank Sinatra way”, via “technology, not taxes”, and that the federal opposition could not be trusted to deliver decarbonization that did not threaten Australian jobs. While this rhetoric resonates within Australia, it falls on deaf and disbelieving ears on the international stage, threatening Australia’s reputation and the chance for any meaningful decarbonization achievements.
Contact details for Australia’s Energy & Emissions Reductions Minister Angus Taylor
Honorable Angus Taylor MP
Minister for Energy & Energy Reductions
18 Hill Street Camden
Camden NSW 2570
Telephone: +612 4658 7188
angus.taylor.mp@aph.gov.au
Twitter: @AngusTaylorMP
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Angustaylor4hume/
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