In post-COVID-19 pandemic efforts to revive the economy, China’s government has so far – unlike other countries – resisted issuing a large stimulus package. Instead, the current stimulus measures amount to 2 trillion RMB – split into government bonds and financial relief measures – are targeted at spurring innovative technologies and consumption to stabilize employment and ensure people’s livelihood. Acknowledging that China’s economic growth is increasingly driven by consumption, the government has been trying to rekindle consumption by, for example, issuing consumption vouchers and cutting the purchase taxes for cars.
This is where stimulus for two of the hardest hit industries in China converge: consumers are encouraged to buy more cars to save the ailing automotive industry, especially in the New Energy Vehicle (NEV) segment. China is the world’s largest auto market, including electric vehicles. China’s automotive industry with its large down- and upstream industries has been a crucial driver of economic growth with well over 50 local and foreign car makers active in the market.
However, automotive sales had already started to decline prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2018, China’s overall automotive market fell by nearly 3% year-on-year, a first after 28 years. This trend continued in 2019 when car sales fell by 12.4% in the first half compared to 2018. While sales and production of NEVs grew by 59.92 % and 61.74 % respectively, it was not enough to offset the overall slump.
The importance of the NEV segment for China is not of economic significance alone. It has been a flagship project for the Chinese government to reinvigorate an industry that was mainly dominated by large foreign brands. In 2010, the government designated NEVs as one of its seven “strategic emerging industries” and in 2015, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang further elevated the industry plus concomitant battery technology production and charging network to become a key pillar in the strategic “Made in China 2025” plan. Policy tools including research funding, emissions guidelines, import tariffs, purchase subsidies, tax exemptions, license restrictions etc., were applied to build a strong domestic industry and help reduce pollution. At the same time, it created a glut of electric vehicle makers barely able to survive without subsidies. Throughout 2019 the government slashed more than 70% of subsidies.
China is now planning to stimulate the new energy vehicle sector in terms of demand, supply and use. Measures like relaxed limits on production outsourcing and allowing carmakers to test products themselves to cut unnecessary and repetitive procedures aimed at making production more efficient and cost-effective. Outsourcing production makes it easier and cheaper for start-ups to produce cars and allow established carmakers to make better use of their factories. Further measures include encouraging battery-swap technologies to alleviate mileage anxieties, introduction of more new energy vehicles into public-service sectors including buses, street sweepers and logistics, add more charging piles and exempt electric cars from ban-day rules and cutting parking charges. In addition, the government plans to add 5,000 hydrogen energy vehicles on the road by 2020, 50,000 by 2025 and 1 million by 2030. However, while the network of electric charging station has been steadily expanding, there is a need to develop a dense system of hydrogen refueling stations to support the expansion of this type of new energy transport.
Activity Rating: *** Moving Forward
While some improvement of air quality can be seen in cities with large fleets of NEVs, the overall assessments of the sector’s environmental impact is critical, saying that there is little evidence of reduced greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, much of China’s electricity grid is powered primarily by coal-fired power plants making electric cars not much cleaner in terms of carbon emissions than combustible engines. In addition, the indirect emissions caused by the high energy consumption needed to produce lithium-ion batteries can be up to twice of those used to manufacture a standard combustible vehicle. With the resumption of China’s industry, transport and traffic, levels of health-harming air pollutants in China are reported to have exceeded concentrations compared to the same time last year, for the first time since the start of the COVID-19 crisis. The rebound appears to be driven by industrial emissions and pollution levels tended to increase more in areas where coal-burning is a larger source of pollution.
Pushing for more NEVs on China’s roads will only be meaningful if it is combined with an accelerated energy reform away from coal to cleaner sources of energy. The southern island province of Hainan may serve as an example, where the provincial government recently announced a ban on combustible engine vehicle sales by 2030 as well as a commitment to shifting the whole island to a clean electricity system by 2030 based on 80% clean energy.
Car manufacturing itself has a way to go to make production cleaner. To this point, Chinese car maker Geely, which owns the Volvo brand, has recently announced that its Volvo production in Sichuan will be carbon-neutral by 2030.
In Chinese media calls for a green recovery have become more vociferous in recent weeks, citing the efforts of a.o. the EU to ties financial support to creating business models and technologies to combat climate change. A government guideline released in late April on accelerating the establishment of a regulatory and policy system for green production and consumption is providing hope that green initiatives will become part of green economic stimulus initiative.
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Message:
Dear Minister/Premier,
We commend China on its unwavering support to continue on the path of greener development despite the vast challenges to the economy in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Pushing for increased NEV use instead of combustible energy cars on China’s streets to support the struggling local automotive industry and its employees is a good step into the right direction. At the same time, we urge you to couple these efforts with additional focus on reforming the energy sources for all modes of transport in order to achieve real impact on carbon emissions reduction. Complementary measures should include:
- Speed up efforts to transform its energy sector to rely less on coal and more on clean energy sources, including concomitant policies to support further and faster development of wind and solar energy or a shift to cleaner burning liquid natural gas.
- Expand research into alternative energy sources for NEVs like hydrogen and encourage more energy efficient production in the up- and downstream automotive industries.
- Expand NEV charging infrastructure
- Encourage new business models like the shared car or bike economy to complement public transport in cities and to reduce the individual household ownership of one or more cars.
- Speed up development of clean energy infrastructure for long-distance transport like trains to take combustible engine trucks off the roads.
Contacts
National Development & Reform Commission / 中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会
Chairman Lifeng He / 何立峰主任
(for Chinese) http://xf.ndrc.gov.cn/xf/2019/ly.jsp
(For English) english@mail.gov.cn
Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People’s Republic of China/ 中华人民共和国工业和信息化部
Minister Wei Miao / 苗圩部长
(for Chinese) http://bzxx.miit.gov.cn/bzxx/appellate/notice
(For English) english@mail.gov.cn
The State Council, 中华人民共和国国务院总理
Share your ideas with China’s Premier (in English)
Premier Keqiang Li / 李克强总理
http://topic.media.gov.cn/topicdata/en/2020/index.html
This Post was submitted by Climate Scorecard Country Manager: Annette Wiedenbach
Learn More:
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202006/03/WS5ed709b4a310a8b24115a809_2.html
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202005/30/WS5ed1b75fa310a8b241159989_3.html
http://english.www.gov.cn/premier/speeches/2019/03/16/content_281476565265580.htm
https://static.europeanchamber.com.cn/upload/documents/documents/Automotive_Working_Group_Position_Paper_2019_English[741].pdf
China’s New Energy Car Quest in: AutoUpdate
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kaiKQWFpK4nM0Dmpc80gOw
Hainan confirms ban on oil-fuelled vehicle sales by 2030 in: AutoUpdate
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CQf3ZBnPcxgoiDFnJ4XBcA
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202006/03/WS5ed709b4a310a8b24115a809_2.html
BRIEFING: China’s air pollution overshoots pre-crisis levels for the first time
https://energyandcleanair.org/tracker/COVID-19-air-pollution-rebound-tracker/
中国新电动汽车的使用增长需要能源改革的支持
与其他国家不同的是，迄今为止中国政府一直没有出台大规模刺激计划提振疫后经济。取而代之的是目前总额达到2万亿元人民币的经济措施（分为政府债券和财政救济措施），以鼓励创新技术和居民消费、稳就业、保民生。由于意识到消费是经济增长的引擎之一，政府便不断尝试重振消费，比如发行消费券以及减削汽车购置税。
这项刺激措施将受益中国受灾最严重的两个产业：鼓励消费者购买更多汽车以拯救陷入困境的汽车行业，特别是新能源汽车。中国是包括电动汽车在内的全球最大的汽车市场。中国的汽车工业及其庞大的上下游产业，向来是经济增长的关键驱动力，现今活跃于市场的本地和国外汽车制造商多达50余家。
然而，在新冠流行之前汽车销量已然开始下降。 2018年，中国汽车整体销量于28年以来首次下滑，同比下降近3％。2019年继续保持下挫趋势，上半年汽车销量与2018年同比下降12.4％。尽管新能源汽车的销量和产量分别增长了59.92％和61.74％，但仍不足以抵消整体市场走低的趋向。
新能源汽车对中国的重要性并不仅限于经济意义。这是中国政府试图转变由大型外国品牌主导行业之现状的旗舰项目。 2010年政府就把新能源汽车设定为七个“战略性新兴产业”之一。2015年，国务院总理李克强进一步强化该产业地位，并和电池研发生产、充电网络建设列为“中国制造2025”战略的一大支柱。同时大力推进研发资金、排放准则、进口关税、购买补贴、免税、许可证限制等行政措施，希望构建强大的国产化产业并推动环保发展。在政策的扶持下，随即涌现了大量的电动汽车制造商，这些制造商如果没有政府补贴几乎无法生存。但在整个2019年度，政府大幅削减了超过70％的补贴。
中国目前正筹划在需求、供应和使用方面推动新能源汽车产业发展。诸如放宽生产外包限制，允许汽车制造商自行测试产品以削减不必要及重复的程序等以提高生产效率和成本效益。生产外包令初创企业越发容易生存且实现低成本制造，并便于资深汽车制造商愈加善用其生产资源。再进一步的措施还包括支持电池更换技术以延长续航里程；将更多新能源汽车引入公交、清扫车和物流等公共服务领域；增加充电桩；并豁免电动汽车的禁令规则同时削减停车费。此外，政府计划到2020年合计推广5,000辆氢能汽车，到2025年达到50,000辆，2030年达到100万辆。尽管目前充电站网络呈稳步扩张态势，而为支持此类新能源运输的扩展，高密度加氢站的建设依然迫在眉睫。
活动评分：★★★
在新能源汽车推广效果最好的城市可以看到空气质量有所改善，然而对该行业的环境影响进行总体评估才至关重要，几乎没有证据显示温室气体排放减少。事实上，中国大部分电网由燃煤电厂供电，这使得电动汽车在碳排放方面并不比燃油车清洁多少。此外，锂电池生产所需的高能耗而导致的间接排放可能是燃油车排放量的两倍。随着中国工业、交通运输业的恢复，据报道，自新冠疫情爆发以来，中国危害健康的空气污染物浓度已超过去年同期。空气污染反弹似乎是由工业排放带动的，煤炭使用大区的污染水平趋于上升。
只有在加速煤炭转向清洁能源改革的前提下，推动中国新能源汽车消费才有意义。南部热带岛屿—海南可作为范例。省政府最近宣布到2030年，岛内禁止销售燃油车，并承诺届时全岛使用绿色电力系统，清洁能源装机比例达到80%。
汽车制造本身可以做到生产更清洁。至此，拥有沃尔沃（Volvo）品牌的中国汽车制造商吉利（Geely）最近宣布，到2030年其在四川的沃尔沃生产将实现碳中和。
最近几周，中国媒体上人们促请绿色复苏的呼声越来越高，其中引用了欧盟利用财政来支持新的商业模式和技术以应对气候变化，。4月末政府发布的《关于加快建立绿色生产和消费法规政策体系的意见》，为实现绿色新政融入绿色经济倡议指明了方向。
行动指南：请将以下信息传递给立法者
尊敬的部长/总理：
尽管新冠疫情给中国经济带来了巨大的挑战，政府依然坚定不移地支持绿色发展道路，对此我们深表感谢。推动新能源汽车消费代替燃油车，以支持陷入困境的汽车产业及当地员工，这是向正确方向迈出的重要一步。同时，我们希望您能额外关注各项运输方面的能源改革，并结合两者，以真正减少碳排放，相关补充措施建议如下：
- 加速绿色清洁能源改革，减少煤炭依赖，出台相应政策，以进一步支持风能和太阳能增速发展，或转向使用更清洁的液态天然气。
- 深入新能源汽车替代能源（比如氢能）的研究，并鼓励上下游汽车产业提高能效生产。
- 增加新能源汽车充电基础设施
- 鼓励新型商业模式，例如共享汽车或自行车经济，以补充城市公共交通，并削减人均汽车拥有量。
- 加快长途运输清洁能源基础设施发展（例如：火车），并减少燃油卡车使用。
中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会
何立峰主任
(中文) http://xf.ndrc.gov.cn/xf/2019/ly.jsp
中华人民共和国工业和信息化部
苗圩部长
(中文) http://bzxx.miit.gov.cn/bzxx/appellate/notice
中华人民共和国国务院总理
李克强总理
http://topic.media.gov.cn/topicdata/en/2020/index.html
此文由Climate Scorecard国家经理：Annette Wiedenbach攥写
Translation / 翻译：Jolin
电邮：awiedenbach@gmx.de
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